CBJ beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alexandre Texier scored at 2:08 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joonas Korpisalo allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:09 |  CBJ | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Seth Jones, Zach Werenski | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:05 | CBJ | Cam AtkinsonPP from Alexander Wennberg, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 0–2 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 1:32 | BUF | Marcus JohanssonPP from Colin Miller, Conor Sheary | 1–2 | 15% → 28% |
| P2 11:58 | BUF | Jeff Skinner unassisted | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 6:46 | CBJ | Nick FolignoPP from Emil Bemstrom, Alexandre Texier | 2–3 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 18:46 | BUF | Victor OlofssonPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Sam Reinhart | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 2:08 | CBJ | Alexandre Texier from Nick Foligno | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:47 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.10 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:36 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 20:33 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.26 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 10:55 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:57 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 19:46 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 19:35 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 15:08 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 23:25 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 12:05 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 10:27 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 24:37 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 14:00 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:09 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 20:40 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 17:01 | −0.41 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 10:46 | −0.52 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 17:08 | −0.62 | −0.40 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:40 | −0.45 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Texier L | 18:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.35 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Foligno L | 16:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.33 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:18 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.28 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 21:50 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.21 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 23:12 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.38 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 15:00 | +0.16 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Nutivaara D | 15:27 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:22 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.23 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 12:38 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 7:39 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 8:51 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:07 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:02 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Savard D | 19:42 | −0.10 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 27:10 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.23 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Murray D | 19:16 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 15:17 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jakob Lilja L | 7:32 | −0.31 | +0.09 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 61:47 | −1.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.