DET beat DAL 4–3. DET also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anthony Mantha scored at 19:06 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 50% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:57 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Miro Heiskanen, Anton Khudobin | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:49 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Jamie Oleksiak, Taylor Fedun | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 0:48 | DET | Anthony ManthaPP from Taro Hirose, Dennis Cholowski | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 9:43 | DET | Anthony Mantha from Danny DeKeyser, Filip Hronek | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 0:15 | DET | Anthony Mantha from Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 0:48 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Mattias Janmark, Andrej Sekera | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 19:06 | DET | Anthony Mantha from Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin | 3–4 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roope Hintz C | 17:20 | 2 | +1.82 | +0.23 | +1.60 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 21:22 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:19 | +0.40 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:33 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Fedun D | 8:29 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrej Sekera D | 20:45 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 12:54 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 7:00 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 16:27 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 25:55 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rhett Gardner C | 10:26 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 10:36 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Caamano R | 10:45 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 23:15 | −0.21 | +0.19 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:19 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 17:03 | −0.42 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 14:13 | −0.72 | −0.13 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 59:06 | −0.86 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha R | 19:27 | 4 | +2.77 | +0.04 | +2.72 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Darren Helm C | 12:56 | +0.14 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 7:39 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 20:47 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 22:39 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Abdelkader L | 10:26 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 16:52 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 16:35 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Daley D | 7:25 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christoffer Ehn C | 12:43 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Green D | 24:05 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 16:40 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 13:49 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Taro Hirose L | 15:42 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 21:02 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:39 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Danny DeKeyser D | 20:44 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 14:50 | −0.48 | −0.22 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 60:00 | −0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.