EDM beat LAK 6–5. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: James Neal scored on the power play at 13:28 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 86%. Jonathan Quick allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:53 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:13 | LAK | Dustin Brown from Anze Kopitar | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 9:05 | LAK | Trevor Lewis from Kyle Clifford | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:23 | EDM | James NealPP from Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom | 2–2 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 14:49 | LAK | Anze Kopitar from Dustin Brown, Ben Hutton | 3–2 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 4:51 | EDM | Zack Kassian from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 3:26 | LAK | Michael Amadio from Kyle Clifford, Trevor Lewis | 4–3 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 5:24 | EDM | Joakim Nygard from Gaetan Haas | 4–4 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 8:19 | LAK | Drew DoughtyPP from Ilya Kovalchuk, Anze Kopitar | 5–4 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 10:10 | EDM | Darnell Nurse from Tomas Jurco | 5–5 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 13:28 | EDM | James NealPP from Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom | 5–6 | 53% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar C | 23:55 | 1 | 2 | +0.73 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Dustin Brown R | 20:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.22 | +0.39 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Michael Amadio R | 14:28 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.06 | +0.33 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Clifford L | 7:26 | 2 | +0.49 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 23:47 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.20 | +0.33 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 19:10 | +0.24 | +0.22 | −0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 18:50 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Kovalchuk L | 14:59 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 14:44 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 10:26 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:21 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 20:53 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 14:11 | −0.20 | +0.19 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Austin Wagner L | 10:34 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 15:02 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 20:23 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 15:32 | −0.47 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 58:09 | −3.49 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 24:07 | 1 | 3 | +1.27 | +0.22 | +0.40 | +0.48 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.02 |
| James Neal L | 19:28 | 2 | +0.62 | +0.22 | +0.66 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:36 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.15 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nygard L | 14:39 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.00 | +0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 26:05 | 2 | +0.48 | +0.07 | −0.37 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.35 | −0.05 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 15:30 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.06 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gaetan Haas C | 12:18 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tomas Jurco R | 8:31 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oscar Klefbom D | 26:33 | 3 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:19 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 9:13 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Colby Cave C | 6:33 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Persson D | 14:49 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 13:30 | −0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 19:01 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Russell R | 10:26 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 11:21 | −0.21 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 17:16 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 59:54 | −1.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.