STL beat DAL 3–2. STL lost the expected-goals battle 1.4 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sammy Blais scored at 10:25 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 83%. Ben Bishop allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:21 |  STL | David Perron from Sammy Blais, Colton Parayko | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:04 | DAL | Mattias JanmarkSH unassisted | 1–1 | 29% → 46% |
| P2 13:12 | DAL | Miro Heiskanen unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 4:27 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 10:25 | STL | Sammy Blais from Carl Gunnarsson, Ryan O'Reilly | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Janmark C | 12:58 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.09 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:18 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.18 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 22:02 | +0.39 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rhett Gardner C | 12:04 | +0.32 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 17:26 | +0.25 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 23:44 | +0.22 | +0.44 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:56 | +0.20 | +0.41 | −0.25 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 11:35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Caamano R | 11:18 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 13:20 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 16:08 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:52 | −0.10 | +0.38 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 13:42 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 18:06 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 19:03 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 11:46 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 19:30 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.43 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Fedun D | 14:27 | −0.27 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 57:45 | −1.48 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 16:46 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.03 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 14:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.79 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:22 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.29 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 13:30 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 8:41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 17:28 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 10:34 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 12:58 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:30 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 19:24 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 16:57 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:48 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 16:39 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:01 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 18:35 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:10 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 22:45 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:02 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.28 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | +0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.