NJD beat FLA 4–3 in overtime. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Travis Zajac scored on the power play at 0:56 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:27 | NJD | Nathan Bastian from Nico Hischier, Will Butcher | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 7:41 | NJD | Nathan Bastian from Egor Yakovlev, Blake Coleman | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 11:58 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Jonathan Huberdeau | 2–1 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 14:29 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Joey Anderson, Kevin Rooney | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 16:35 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Evgenii Dadonov, Keith Yandle | 3–2 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 18:35 | FLA | Mike HoffmanPP from Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 0:56 | NJD | Travis ZajacPP from Damon Severson, Pavel Zacha | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Bastian R | 16:38 | 2 | +1.45 | −0.05 | +1.53 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 20:13 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.79 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 21:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.02 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.05 |
| Michael McLeod C | 9:15 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Seney L | 9:31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 17:00 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Yakovlev D | 17:07 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kenny Agostino L | 14:35 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Steven Santini D | 18:16 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 20:59 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 16:27 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Carrick D | 20:06 | −0.46 | −0.26 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 13:15 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Drew Stafford R | 15:51 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 23:47 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:49 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.22 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Joey Anderson R | 12:43 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.52 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 11:42 | −0.62 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:55 | +1.95 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov C | 23:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.30 | +0.53 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:30 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.23 | +0.40 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.31 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 19:04 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.33 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 10:21 | +0.19 | +0.31 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 20:06 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 25:11 | +0.12 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 9:42 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 13:16 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 14:34 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 10:45 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Brouwer R | 10:51 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:53 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 11:54 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 24:44 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:39 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.39 | −0.61 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 13:06 | −0.51 | +0.09 | −0.59 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 12:12 | −0.71 | +0.15 | −0.84 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 60:31 | −0.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.