MTL beat TOR 6–5 in a shootout. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 5.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Poehling scored at 17:29 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 8% to 51%. Frederik Andersen allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:50 | TOR | Zach Hyman unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:03 | TOR | Jake Gardiner from Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 11:41 |  MTL | Ryan Poehling from Jordan Weal, Nicolas Deslauriers | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 2:56 | MTL | Ryan Poehling from Jeff Petry, Nicolas Deslauriers | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 7:04 | MTL | Jordan WealPP from Joel Armia, Jonathan Drouin | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 8:47 | TOR | Trevor Moore from Frederik Gauthier | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:17 | MTL | Andrew Shaw from Max Domi, Artturi Lehkonen | 3–4 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 17:33 | TOR | William Nylander from Nazem Kadri | 4–4 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 8:04 | TOR | Kasperi Kapanen from Auston Matthews, Andreas Johnsson | 5–4 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 17:29 | MTL | Ryan Poehling from Artturi Lehkonen, Andrew Shaw | 5–5 | 8% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Moore L | 10:57 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 17:38 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.08 | +0.56 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 15:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.09 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Jake Gardiner D | 26:35 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.35 | +0.87 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 20:03 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.05 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.71 | |
| Martin Marincin D | 21:51 | +0.21 | +0.31 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 19:00 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.19 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Calle Rosen D | 20:10 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 26:47 | +0.09 | +0.35 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 10:30 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 10:27 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 15:00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 17:34 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.26 | −0.15 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | |
| Igor Ozhiganov D | 12:58 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:58 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.45 | −0.64 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 17:47 | −0.60 | +0.22 | −0.97 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 17:27 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.24 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:22 | −0.97 | +0.45 | −0.90 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 64:47 | −1.06 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Poehling C | 11:22 | 3 | +3.62 | +0.11 | +2.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.06 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:37 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.08 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Andrew Shaw R | 18:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Weal C | 12:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.44 |
| Jeff Petry D | 24:49 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:59 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:50 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Folin D | 15:33 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 17:07 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 22:57 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:15 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.10 | −0.42 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 21:41 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.44 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 13:32 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Mete D | 22:03 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 17:43 | −0.43 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.13 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:45 | −0.53 | +0.05 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 22:25 | −0.56 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 17:31 | −0.70 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 65:00 | +0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.