STL beat COL 3–2 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.9, STL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alexander Kerfoot scored on the power play at 19:13 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 4% to 49%. Jordan Binnington saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:07 |  STL | Jaden Schwartz from Oskar Sundqvist, David Perron | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 0:14 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn | 0–2 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 6:30 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Patrik Nemeth, Carl Soderberg | 1–2 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 19:13 | COL | Alexander KerfootPP from Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–2 | 4% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:59 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.17 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 21:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.23 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.35 |
| Derick Brassard C | 14:34 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 21:14 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 21:13 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 13:19 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 16:13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 22:18 | −0.04 | +0.28 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:51 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 20:23 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Bourque L | 7:50 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 16:34 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 15:23 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 16:46 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 18:40 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 24:38 | −0.44 | −0.16 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sven Andrighetto R | 13:36 | −0.55 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:33 | 1 | −0.65 | +0.04 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 63:31 | −0.04 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:08 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.84 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:41 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.04 | +0.65 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.13 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:55 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.03 | +0.52 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 13:26 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:02 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 12:48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 14:54 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 27:45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 11:42 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 12:53 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 21:31 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 14:05 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 21:57 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:26 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:38 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 15:17 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 16:05 | −0.55 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.30 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 15:47 | −0.62 | −0.00 | −0.45 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 65:00 | +2.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.