COL beat ARI 3–2 in a shootout. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored on the power play at 19:09 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 4% to 50%. Philipp Grubauer saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 13:37 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Gabriel Landeskog, Alexander Kerfoot | 0–1 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 19:26 | COL | Derick BrassardPP from Colin Wilson, Carl Soderberg | 0–2 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 12:00 | ARI | Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Jason Demers, Vinnie Hinostroza | 1–2 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 19:09 | ARI | Oliver Ekman-LarssonPP from Vinnie Hinostroza, Alex Goligoski | 2–2 | 4% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 25:32 | 2 | +1.56 | +0.05 | +1.48 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 20:17 | +0.27 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 21:51 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 12:37 | +0.12 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 15:39 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 20:27 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 14:49 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 20:03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 16:51 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 13:26 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 11:12 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 21:14 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:56 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 16:27 | −0.28 | +0.11 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 17:08 | 2 | −0.31 | +0.10 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.31 | |
| Richard Panik R | 16:55 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 15:25 | −0.62 | +0.27 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.27 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 14:43 | −0.83 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 64:38 | −0.14 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:47 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.08 | +0.54 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.71 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 9:55 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.02 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Wilson C | 16:43 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Soderberg C | 21:20 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:28 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 14:53 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 8:53 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 18:10 | −0.13 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 14:53 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 24:56 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 9:59 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Sven Andrighetto R | 8:52 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 26:45 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 22:28 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 17:49 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:24 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 18:40 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 22:15 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.09 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 64:50 | +2.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.