ANA beat VAN 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 2.2, VAN 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Sam Steel scored at 19:09 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 72%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:09 |  ANA | Sam Steel unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:50 |  VAN | Jake Virtanen from Tim Schaller, Jay Beagle | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 19:00 | VAN | Alexander Edler from Josh Leivo, Troy Stecher | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 12:16 | ANA | Sam Steel from Kiefer Sherwood | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 19:09 | ANA | Sam Steel unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 7:44 | ANA | Rickard RakellPP from Adam Henrique, Troy Terry | 4–2 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 11:22 | ANA | Kiefer Sherwood unassisted | 5–2 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 13:34 | VAN | Josh Leivo unassisted | 5–3 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 14:28 | VAN | Tanner Pearson from Troy Stecher, Bo Horvat | 5–4 | 2% → 14% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Steel C | 14:55 | 3 | +2.27 | +0.19 | +2.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 21:11 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.22 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 10:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.21 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Troy Terry R | 13:20 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 23:39 | +0.26 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Korbinian Holzer D | 18:20 | +0.24 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Welinski D | 17:37 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 19:32 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 19:20 | +0.03 | +0.25 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 16:01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 14:48 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 14:14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:32 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Josh Manson D | 22:01 | −0.08 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 13:20 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 13:11 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 15:22 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:31 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:21 | −1.89 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Virtanen R | 16:43 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.05 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Leivo L | 17:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.09 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Edler D | 26:42 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.25 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 21:11 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.13 | +0.54 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:09 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 13:23 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 8:53 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ashton Sautner D | 17:40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 12:17 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Biega D | 19:20 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 25:29 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 22:33 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Josh Teves D | 13:40 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 17:06 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 13:57 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sven Baertschi L | 12:05 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:06 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 16:01 | −0.48 | −0.16 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 57:55 | −2.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.