CAR beat MTL 2–1 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Andrei Svechnikov scored at 3:15 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Curtis McElhinney saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:58 | MTL | Paul Byron from Brendan Gallagher, Nate Thompson | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P3 14:21 | CAR | Trevor van Riemsdyk from Micheal Ferland, Jordan Martinook | 1–1 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 3:15 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Jordan Staal | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Byron L | 15:52 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.11 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 12:24 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:18 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 18:02 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Folin D | 15:26 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 24:51 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 19:35 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 20:30 | −0.22 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 16:19 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 9:57 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Weal C | 12:50 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:05 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:33 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 23:30 | −0.40 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 16:09 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.18 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 17:24 | −0.49 | −0.02 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 20:20 | −0.65 | −0.31 | −0.37 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 63:14 | +1.01 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:51 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.13 | +0.86 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 14:23 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.13 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 17:04 | +0.28 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 18:46 | +0.28 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:56 | +0.20 | +0.26 | −0.11 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 24:29 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 14:26 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 20:15 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 7:34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 10:31 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:00 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.46 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 25:30 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Saku Maenalanen R | 6:53 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 20:05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Micheal Ferland L | 14:11 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 20:28 | −0.20 | +0.17 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:59 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.23 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 19:33 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.10 | −0.56 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis McElhinney G | 63:06 | +1.81 |
| Petr Mrazek G | 0:09 | +0.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.