PIT beat DAL 3–2. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jared McCann scored short-handed at 4:20 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 47% to 74%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:25 |  PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Phil Kessel, Kris Letang | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 1:03 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Alexander Radulov, Roope Hintz | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 14:41 | PIT | Jared McCann from Phil Kessel | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 18:40 | DAL | Andrew Cogliano from John Klingberg, Valeri Nichushkin | 2–2 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 4:20 | PIT | Jared McCannSH from Teddy Blueger, Erik Gudbranson | 3–2 | 47% → 74% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann L | 16:30 | 2 | +1.56 | +0.14 | +1.41 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 15:38 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 16:40 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 16:58 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 15:57 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 25:00 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 13:22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 11:28 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Garrett Wilson L | 5:11 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Johnson C | 4:36 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 24:26 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 17:09 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:45 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.29 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patric Hornqvist R | 15:58 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 17:24 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 18:48 | −0.46 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:39 | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:11 | −0.50 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:00 | +0.70 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cogliano C | 8:33 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.20 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 23:23 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.06 | +0.35 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 12:42 | +0.23 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 18:43 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Ben Lovejoy D | 14:55 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:04 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 29:01 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 7:21 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Dowling C | 14:04 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 21:27 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Fedun D | 11:25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 21:07 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 15:26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel L'Esperance R | 10:19 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 17:32 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:26 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 14:26 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 21:45 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.05 | −0.33 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 58:30 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.