NYR beat TOR 2–1 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 6.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Strome scored at 1:48 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 4.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 0:19 | NYR | Pavel Buchnevich from Brady Skjei, Kevin Shattenkirk | 1–0 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 8:33 |  TOR | Zach Hyman from John Tavares, Mitch Marner | 1–1 | 21% → 52% |
| OT 1:48 | NYR | Ryan Strome from Boo Nieves | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strome C | 18:07 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.31 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:18 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.09 | +0.35 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lias Andersson C | 11:40 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.36 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 20:15 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:19 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 15:29 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 13:51 | −0.16 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Boo Nieves C | 13:19 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 13:25 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 22:01 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 14:50 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.06 | ||
| John Gilmour D | 17:00 | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 12:31 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 17:10 | −0.36 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:06 | −0.40 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 18:10 | −0.44 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 15:54 | −0.62 | −0.35 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 22:18 | −0.88 | −0.31 | −0.56 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 61:38 | +3.98 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman L | 15:47 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.06 | +0.36 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 27:10 | +0.35 | +0.42 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 27:18 | +0.27 | +0.68 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 6:51 | +0.22 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 23:23 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.28 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 20:40 | +0.08 | +0.79 | −0.77 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:29 | −0.01 | +0.51 | −0.52 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 7:59 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 17:03 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Ozhiganov D | 10:51 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:54 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.37 | −0.57 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:43 | −0.12 | +0.22 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 20:13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 8:01 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 13:26 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 9:43 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 14:35 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 61:41 | +0.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.