ANA beat SJS 4–3 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jakob Silfverberg scored at 0:38 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Aaron Dell allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:58 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Getzlaf | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:29 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Marcus Sorensen | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 2:41 | ANA | Adam HenriquePP from Troy Terry, Jakob Silfverberg | 1–2 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 6:29 | SJS | Timo MeierPP from Joe Thornton, Brent Burns | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 15:05 | ANA | Rickard RakellPP from Cam Fowler, Troy Terry | 2–3 | 52% → 89% |
| P3 17:20 | SJS | Justin Braun from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Gustav Nyquist | 3–3 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 0:38 | ANA | Jakob Silfverberg from Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 17:23 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Braun D | 19:06 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.05 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 15:28 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.15 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 10:44 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 12:19 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 13:47 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 20:53 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 17:22 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Radil C | 10:43 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:11 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 20:36 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 28:21 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Sorensen L | 14:15 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Heed D | 12:57 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:38 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 14:46 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:44 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 60:08 | −2.53 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:58 | 2 | 1 | +1.79 | +0.22 | +1.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Adam Henrique C | 12:56 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.12 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 19:01 | 1 | 2 | +0.99 | +0.10 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Daniel Sprong R | 9:01 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 14:34 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 13:02 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 10:09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 21:27 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 15:02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:28 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 13:53 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 25:06 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 12:59 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Korbinian Holzer D | 15:55 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 20:28 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Derek Grant C | 14:00 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Andy Welinski D | 18:06 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 15:11 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 60:23 | −0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.