COL beat DAL 3–1. COL lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Erik Johnson scored at 17:20 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Philipp Grubauer saved 5.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 17:20 | COL | Erik Johnson from Samuel Girard, Colin Wilson | 1–0 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 5:19 | COL | Tyson Barrie from Samuel Girard | 2–0 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 14:59 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from John Klingberg, Miro Heiskanen | 2–1 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 19:11 | COL | Carl SoderbergEN unassisted | 3–1 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Girard D | 18:00 | 2 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:53 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.39 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:37 | +0.34 | +0.30 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 20:36 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.22 | +0.45 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 14:09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 9:39 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 6:19 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sven Andrighetto R | 10:28 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 16:28 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 18:55 | −0.21 | +0.13 | −0.30 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 15:56 | −0.25 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 20:50 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 12:26 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 15:26 | −0.39 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 20:24 | −0.45 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 14:59 | −0.47 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:42 | −0.61 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:13 | −0.64 | +0.05 | −0.61 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +5.34 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Klingberg D | 25:51 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.45 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 20:15 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 22:13 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.33 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 8:54 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 24:56 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 16:48 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 19:07 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 6:24 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 7:07 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 14:35 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.07 | ||
| Taylor Fedun D | 12:15 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 20:48 | −0.25 | +0.26 | −0.33 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 17:51 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:41 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:30 | −0.32 | +0.17 | −0.32 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Joel L'Esperance R | 11:47 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 19:32 | −0.34 | +0.35 | −0.79 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Ben Lovejoy D | 13:38 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 58:48 | +1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.