TOR beat BUF 4–2. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: John Tavares scored at 18:32 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 47% to 72%. Carter Hutton saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:04 | BUF | Casey MittelstadtPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 1:43 |  TOR | Auston Matthews from Andreas Johnsson, Jake Muzzin | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 18:32 | TOR | John Tavares from William Nylander, Auston Matthews | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 0:22 | TOR | Mitch Marner from John Tavares | 3–1 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 5:37 | BUF | Alex Nylander from Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian | 3–2 | 7% → 24% |
| P3 19:27 | TOR | Zach HymanEN unassisted | 4–2 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 22:30 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.29 | +0.72 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 19:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.26 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:25 | +0.35 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Nazem Kadri C | 15:56 | +0.29 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 23:41 | +0.28 | +0.32 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 24:21 | +0.15 | +0.30 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 7:47 | +0.05 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 24:13 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 7:43 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Ozhiganov D | 8:42 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 5:41 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 15:01 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 17:23 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Nic Petan C | 7:47 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 17:18 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 17:12 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.01 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:56 | −0.52 | +0.08 | −0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Garret Sparks G | 60:00 | −0.03 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Nylander L | 10:50 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.13 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 12:16 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.06 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 18:06 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 22:42 | −0.03 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 16:44 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 22:31 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 12:15 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 13:15 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 15:42 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Nelson D | 17:32 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:47 | −0.22 | −0.25 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 14:25 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 12:08 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 17:31 | −0.34 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:33 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 19:11 | −0.38 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:02 | −0.42 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:27 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.20 | −0.31 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 59:01 | +1.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.