CAR beat PIT 3–2 in a shootout. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 5.4 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Justin Williams scored on the power play at 18:04 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 8% to 50%. Matt Murray saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:38 |  CAR | Brock McGinn from Justin Faulk | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 10:16 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 15:23 | PIT | Kris Letang from Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel | 2–1 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 18:04 | CAR | Justin WilliamsPP from Dougie Hamilton, Nino Niederreiter | 2–2 | 8% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:37 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:11 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:26 | 1 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.38 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Kris Letang D | 26:45 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.64 | +0.73 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Garrett Wilson L | 9:10 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 20:01 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joseph Blandisi C | 7:44 | −0.23 | +0.11 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:02 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 18:41 | −0.27 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 13:00 | −0.36 | −0.23 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 16:02 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 13:58 | −0.43 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 17:53 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:11 | 2 | −0.50 | −0.62 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 25:10 | −0.63 | −0.45 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:49 | 1 | −0.89 | −0.33 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 19:01 | −0.89 | −0.54 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 16:05 | −0.94 | −0.13 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 65:00 | +2.17 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:40 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.79 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 | |
| Justin Williams R | 22:28 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.48 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 28:27 | +0.56 | +0.73 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.36 | +0.03 | −0.17 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 8:53 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.17 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 21:18 | +0.28 | +0.89 | −0.64 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:44 | +0.25 | +0.60 | −0.25 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.13 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 15:45 | +0.12 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:12 | +0.11 | +0.35 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:01 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 14:31 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 24:32 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 21:32 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.36 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Wallmark C | 13:47 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 6:38 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:13 | −0.11 | +0.28 | −0.60 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Saku Maenalanen R | 6:23 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 25:31 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Micheal Ferland L | 13:49 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 64:23 | +2.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.