EDM beat ARI 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.2, ARI 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 0:58 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:38 | EDM | Connor McDavidSH from Alex Chiasson, Kris Russell | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 18:24 | ARI | Alex GalchenyukPP from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jakob Chychrun | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 4:52 | EDM | Matt Benning from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 5:04 | ARI | Alex Galchenyuk from Nick Cousins, Conor Garland | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| OT 0:58 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Oscar Klefbom | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 25:29 | 2 | 1 | +1.44 | +0.22 | +1.08 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Matt Benning D | 15:38 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.45 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Russell D | 20:39 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:20 | +0.24 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 26:05 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 11:44 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 26:43 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.29 | −0.22 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.08 | |
| Andrej Sekera D | 12:21 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Currie R | 6:24 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joseph Gambardella C | 6:10 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 10:13 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 18:20 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 12:51 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 19:06 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 11:25 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Colby Cave C | 9:29 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:54 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 18:10 | −0.52 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 60:19 | +0.48 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 14:47 | 2 | +0.64 | +0.04 | +0.65 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jason Demers D | 20:25 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:33 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Josh Archibald R | 14:04 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 20:19 | +0.13 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 14:23 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:10 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 12:57 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 14:37 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mario Kempe R | 9:41 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:57 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 18:26 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 18:54 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 19:47 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 18:46 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 14:21 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:58 | −0.42 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 17:49 | −0.43 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:58 | −0.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.