ARI beat LAK 4–2. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Christian Dvorak scored at 10:28 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 83%. Jack Campbell allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:23 | ARI | Christian DvorakPP from Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 9:30 | ARI | Michael GrabnerSH from Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 0–2 | 69% → 83% |
| P1 14:49 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Drew Doughty | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P3 3:44 | LAK | Carl Grundstrom from Derek Forbort, Drew Doughty | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 10:28 | ARI | Christian Dvorak from Alex Goligoski, Clayton Keller | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 15:34 | ARI | Michael Grabner unassisted | 2–4 | 89% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Grundstrom R | 13:03 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.27 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 15:27 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.23 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 17:01 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 21:36 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.34 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:35 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 23:21 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:17 | −0.01 | +0.28 | −0.48 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Paul LaDue D | 14:08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 20:12 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 11:40 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 13:55 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Kovalchuk L | 12:09 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 16:22 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 13:29 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 6:53 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 16:19 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 17:46 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 22:28 | 2 | −0.67 | +0.23 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 59:18 | −1.58 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak C | 18:26 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.15 | +1.37 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 14:29 | 2 | +1.35 | −0.15 | +1.54 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 17:11 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 14:30 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 16:33 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 16:42 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 12:48 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 13:05 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:06 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Kempe R | 11:32 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 24:39 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 21:25 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Archibald R | 13:19 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 19:05 | −0.30 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 13:40 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:12 | 2 | −0.37 | +0.18 | −0.58 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 12:58 | −0.41 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 16:13 | −0.46 | −0.04 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 59:07 | +0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.