BOS beat FLA 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 2.7, BOS 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Patrice Bergeron scored at 19:53 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Roberto Luongo allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:48 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–0 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 6:27 | FLA | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 10:29 | BOS | David Krejci from Danton Heinen, David Backes | 2–1 | 16% → 31% |
| P3 8:50 | BOS | Patrice BergeronSH from Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand | 2–2 | 20% → 51% |
| P3 10:55 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Evgenii Dadonov, Aaron Ekblad | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 19:23 | BOS | Matt GrzelcykPP from Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
| P3 19:53 | BOS | Patrice Bergeron from Brad Marchand | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:35 | 2 | 1 | +1.53 | +0.22 | +1.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 14:45 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 20:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.05 |
| Riley Sheahan C | 14:52 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 13:32 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 22:25 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:48 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 9:24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 11:14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Brouwer R | 15:45 | −0.12 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:07 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 10:11 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 10:09 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 21:45 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:45 | −0.30 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:41 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 20:37 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 6:39 | −0.54 | +0.04 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 59:08 | −1.50 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:58 | 2 | +2.01 | +0.26 | +1.71 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| David Krejci C | 20:11 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.19 | +0.37 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.02 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 14:25 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.08 | +0.88 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 21:12 | 3 | +0.33 | +0.26 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 13:52 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 16:21 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:58 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Karson Kuhlman C | 12:14 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 9:40 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Cehlarik L | 16:27 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 9:24 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 13:54 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| John Moore D | 14:47 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:49 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 17:54 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 13:09 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 21:15 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 23:12 | −0.36 | +0.22 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 59:21 | −0.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.