STL beat ANA 5–4. STL also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex Pietrangelo scored at 19:08 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Jordan Binnington allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:28 |  ANA | Nick Ritchie from Troy Terry, Korbinian Holzer | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:03 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 15:55 | STL | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Tyler Bozak, Alex Pietrangelo | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 13:53 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Colton Parayko, Patrick Maroon | 3–1 | 71% → 86% |
| P2 15:39 | ANA | Rickard RakellPP from Troy Terry, Cam Fowler | 3–2 | 13% → 30% |
| P2 17:51 | ANA | Jaycob Megna from Sam Steel, Jakob Silfverberg | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 5:07 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Jaycob Megna, Troy Terry | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 18:56 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Colton Parayko, Vladimir Tarasenko | 4–4 | 5% → 50% |
| P3 19:08 | STL | Alex Pietrangelo from Brayden Schenn | 5–4 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 14:06 | 2 | +1.87 | +0.25 | +1.41 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 24:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.07 |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 24:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.23 | +0.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.16 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:51 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.33 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:18 | +0.21 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:21 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 17:31 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 16:17 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 18:13 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Michael Del Zotto D | 13:50 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 17:30 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 7:02 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 6:20 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 6:11 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 14:27 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.26 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:05 | −0.44 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:55 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:17 | −1.72 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Ritchie L | 12:28 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 18:37 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.56 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Jaycob Megna D | 17:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.09 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:30 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.09 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Carter Rowney C | 12:01 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 17:11 | 3 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Roy C | 11:27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 11:38 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 14:05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Korbinian Holzer D | 15:43 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Larsson D | 15:21 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 17:28 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 12:33 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ryan Kesler C | 14:58 | −0.41 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 20:49 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Manson D | 21:07 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:25 | −0.45 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:15 | −1.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.