COL beat DET 4–3 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon scored at 2:29 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:47 | DET | Niklas Kronwall from Thomas Vanek, Frans Nielsen | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 1:44 | COL | J.T. Compher from Carl Soderberg, Colin Wilson | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P3 2:22 | DET | Danny DeKeyser from Jacob de la Rose, Justin Abdelkader | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 8:30 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 17:43 | DET | Filip ZadinaPP from Filip Hronek, Thomas Vanek | 3–2 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 18:25 | COL | Tyson BarriePP from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 2:29 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Vanek L | 14:51 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob de la Rose L | 9:56 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 18:16 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.07 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 19:10 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.36 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Abdelkader L | 11:18 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 27:07 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 14:28 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 14:51 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:45 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 15:36 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 23:53 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.30 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 16:05 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.21 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Trevor Daley D | 16:35 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 9:33 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 19:13 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:53 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 16:14 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 15:58 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 62:29 | −0.87 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Barrie D | 22:28 | 1 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.17 | +0.79 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.24 | +0.23 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.36 | −0.03 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.62 | +0.17 | +0.19 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| J.T. Compher L | 17:16 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.34 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 8:47 | +0.20 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 20:45 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.23 | −0.20 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ian Cole D | 17:27 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 22:23 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.24 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Wilson C | 15:13 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 22:33 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:22 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:26 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 13:08 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 7:26 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sven Andrighetto R | 9:31 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 16:27 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 22:57 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 13:56 | −0.28 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 62:19 | −0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.