NSH beat MIN 5–4 in a shootout. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kevin Fiala scored on the power play at 17:42 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 8% to 50%. Devan Dubnyk allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:48 |  NSH | Craig Smith from Rocco Grimaldi, Matt Donovan | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:25 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Greg Pateryn | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 13:38 | NSH | Brian BoylePP from P.K. Subban, Viktor Arvidsson | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 17:49 | MIN | Pontus Aberg from Jordan Greenway, Jared Spurgeon | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 2:25 | MIN | Eric Fehr from Marcus Foligno | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 2:59 | NSH | Roman Josi from Ryan Ellis, Rocco Grimaldi | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 8:21 | NSH | Viktor Arvidsson unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 17:42 | MIN | Kevin FialaPP from Zach Parise, Eric Staal | 4–4 | 8% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:16 | 2 | +1.07 | −0.32 | +1.70 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Eric Fehr C | 10:32 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.11 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Pontus Aberg L | 15:18 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.04 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:19 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:16 | +0.32 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 28:52 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Greg Pateryn D | 15:59 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 31:13 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 15:06 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:29 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| JT Brown R | 10:54 | −0.11 | +0.14 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Bitetto D | 11:10 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 13:50 | −0.14 | +0.30 | −0.42 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 19:54 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 21:41 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.32 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 17:42 | −0.52 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 19:01 | −0.80 | −0.09 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 17:55 | 1 | −0.81 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 64:10 | −2.16 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 26:02 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.31 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brian Boyle C | 13:22 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 19:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.11 | +0.77 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Craig Smith C | 16:09 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.08 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 19:43 | +0.29 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +1.06 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 17:37 | +0.25 | +0.28 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:28 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 16:38 | +0.08 | +0.19 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 26:09 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 9:51 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 27:05 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 24:29 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | |
| Matt Donovan D | 11:18 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 10:01 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 11:56 | −0.30 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:10 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 11:43 | −0.51 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.30 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:12 | −0.76 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 65:00 | +0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.