WPG beat CBJ 5–2. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Blake Wheeler scored at 7:44 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:21 | WPG | Sami Niku from Ben Chiarot, Mathieu Perreault | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 11:22 |  CBJ | Nick FolignoPP from Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 0:35 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Dmitry Kulikov, Mark Scheifele | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 17:31 | CBJ | Seth Jones from Artemi Panarin, Zach Werenski | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 7:44 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Nathan Beaulieu, Mark Scheifele | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 17:47 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Patrik Laine, Nathan Beaulieu | 4–2 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 19:26 | WPG | Blake WheelerEN from Mark Scheifele, Andrew Copp | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Wheeler R | 18:23 | 4 | +2.00 | −0.03 | +2.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Sami Niku D | 13:11 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.32 | +0.90 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 19:26 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 7:09 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 10:50 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:41 | 3 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 18:21 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:21 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 17:04 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Par Lindholm C | 9:57 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 27:53 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:57 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 14:37 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 17:10 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 11:01 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 19:23 | −0.36 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 17:11 | −0.37 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 24:55 | −0.56 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +1.50 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foligno L | 19:21 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.38 | +0.46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Seth Jones D | 25:50 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.18 | +0.85 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 17:22 | +0.32 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 10:27 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 25:31 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.23 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 20:41 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.31 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 19:17 | +0.03 | +0.37 | −0.42 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 17:17 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 14:08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dean Kukan D | 9:56 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 12:01 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Savard D | 20:51 | −0.02 | +0.23 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Sedlak C | 7:16 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 15:17 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 13:34 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:18 | −0.25 | +0.23 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 18:23 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.52 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:14 | −0.71 | +0.17 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.36 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:31 | −2.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.