TOR beat BUF 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 2.7, TOR 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nic Petan scored at 15:02 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Linus Ullmark allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:20 | TOR | John Tavares from Mitch Marner, Martin Marincin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:00 | BUF | Jason Pominville from Zemgus Girgensons, Marco Scandella | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 7:34 | BUF | Conor Sheary from Kyle Okposo | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:40 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Auston Matthews, Ron Hainsey | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 15:02 | TOR | Nic Petan from Trevor Moore | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 19:05 | TOR | Nikita Zaitsev from Mitch Marner, John Tavares | 2–4 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 18:03 | TOR | Mitch MarnerEN from John Tavares, Jake Muzzin | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Pominville R | 11:45 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.06 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 15:39 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.18 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 12:52 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:36 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 14:05 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 22:35 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 13:48 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 19:32 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.27 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:31 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 15:34 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 10:46 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:27 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 20:30 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 15:39 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 10:38 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:02 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:16 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:49 | −0.70 | +0.13 | −0.98 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 58:56 | −1.22 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 20:24 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Petan C | 7:45 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:32 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.12 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 19:44 | 1 | 2 | +0.25 | −0.04 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.05 |
| Trevor Moore L | 8:35 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Igor Ozhiganov D | 15:55 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 15:30 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 16:07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 8:31 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 18:27 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.06 | |
| William Nylander R | 15:05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 20:19 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 19:31 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:42 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 15:50 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:08 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 19:37 | 1 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.27 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Patrick Marleau C | 14:18 | −0.58 | +0.09 | −0.63 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +1.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.