BUF beat PIT 4–3 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Conor Sheary scored at 4:11 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Linus Ullmark saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:09 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Sam Reinhart | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:05 | PIT | Nick Bjugstad from Juuso Riikola, Dominik Simon | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 12:53 | BUF | Conor ShearyPP from Kyle Okposo, Brandon Montour | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 17:18 | PIT | Patric HornqvistPP from Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby | 2–2 | 25% → 48% |
| P2 18:21 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Evgeni Malkin, Justin Schultz | 3–2 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 17:28 | BUF | Brandon Montour from Evan Rodrigues, Conor Sheary | 3–3 | 8% → 51% |
| OT 4:11 | BUF | Conor Sheary unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.04 | +0.59 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.07 |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 15:43 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.06 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 24:38 | +0.31 | +0.36 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 17:21 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.05 | +0.37 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:12 | +0.13 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zach Trotman D | 12:02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 8:25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 25:54 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 22:47 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.33 | −0.46 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Riikola D | 12:31 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:24 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 20:19 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 24:38 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:46 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garrett Wilson L | 6:42 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 8:28 | −0.34 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 13:42 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.04 | −0.49 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 21:20 | −0.49 | +0.50 | −1.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 63:48 | −0.93 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Sheary L | 14:44 | 2 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.08 | +1.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Montour D | 19:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.13 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Eichel C | 25:16 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.09 | +0.61 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 13:09 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 11:55 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 21:24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 5:15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 26:22 | −0.05 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:01 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:04 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 10:48 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 10:23 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 20:09 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 24:45 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 11:59 | −0.50 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Hunwick D | 14:19 | −0.56 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 12:03 | −0.58 | −0.07 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 20:16 | −0.76 | −0.02 | −0.70 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 64:11 | +1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.