VGK beat FLA 6–5 in a shootout. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Reilly Smith scored on the power play at 15:42 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 12% to 51%. Roberto Luongo allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:09 | VGK | Paul Stastny unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 14:34 | FLA | Mike HoffmanPP from Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:31 | FLA | Mike HoffmanPP from Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P1 18:59 | FLA | Aaron Ekblad from Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck | 3–1 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 7:40 | VGK | Reilly Smith from Jonathan Marchessault, Jon Merrill | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 14:22 | VGK | Jon Merrill from Shea Theodore, Jonathan Marchessault | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 16:09 | VGK | Colin Miller from Nate Schmidt, Paul Stastny | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 19:06 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Jamie McGinn, Vincent Trocheck | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 3:18 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Mike Matheson, Dryden Hunt | 5–4 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 15:42 | VGK | Reilly SmithPP from Shea Theodore | 5–5 | 12% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hoffman C | 18:16 | 2 | +1.59 | −0.04 | +1.62 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 27:22 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.12 | +0.67 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 12:12 | +0.31 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:55 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.35 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 13:39 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 9:51 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 9:19 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian McCoshen D | 13:07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 12:33 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.22 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 14:43 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 28:32 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 15:33 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 19:59 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 20:51 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 17:10 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Brouwer R | 14:57 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:47 | 1 | 3 | −0.59 | −0.21 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.30 |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:14 | 2 | −0.73 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 65:00 | −1.70 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reilly Smith R | 17:23 | 2 | +1.26 | −0.20 | +1.43 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 20:39 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.21 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 |
| Colin Miller D | 17:48 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 21:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.06 | +0.78 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:50 | 2 | +0.50 | +0.48 | −0.83 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.84 | |
| Mark Stone R | 22:00 | +0.42 | +0.37 | −0.18 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 20:17 | +0.20 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 18:44 | +0.16 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 6:00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:38 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 15:15 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:50 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 7:07 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 16:10 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 19:36 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 6:38 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:12 | 2 | −0.64 | +0.17 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 17:54 | −0.88 | −0.11 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Subban G | 64:53 | −0.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.