MIN beat WPG 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.6, WPG 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joel Eriksson Ek scored at 18:59 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 50% to 94%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:53 |  WPG | Mark ScheifelePP from Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 11:50 | MIN | Brad HuntPP from Ryan Donato, Eric Staal | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 12:04 | WPG | Patrik Laine from Ben Chiarot, Blake Wheeler | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 18:33 | MIN | Jason ZuckerPP from Ryan Donato, Eric Staal | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
| P3 18:59 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Jonas Brodin, Zach Parise | 3–2 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Hunt D | 12:34 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.17 | +0.62 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:08 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.08 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:40 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.10 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Eric Staal C | 17:03 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 20:56 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Greg Pateryn D | 19:48 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 20:28 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 29:01 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 10:16 | −0.08 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 9:14 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Pontus Aberg L | 14:25 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:28 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 25:57 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:37 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 6:49 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:14 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 18:07 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.17 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:46 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 59:36 | +0.31 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:30 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.02 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 18:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.06 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:26 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:31 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 19:40 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 11:47 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Sami Niku D | 16:01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:54 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 15:28 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 12:44 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 15:19 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:53 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 19:18 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bryan Little C | 12:51 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 10:42 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 18:37 | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 16:23 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 20:11 | −0.69 | −0.29 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 58:59 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.