CGY beat OTT 2–1. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Austin Czarnik scored at 19:19 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 49% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:07 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Sam Bennett | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 15:38 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Thomas Chabot | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 19:19 | CGY | Austin Czarnik from Michael Frolik, Mark Jankowski | 2–1 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Czarnik C | 12:15 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.09 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 15:59 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.10 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 19:40 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 23:10 | +0.10 | +0.26 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 24:44 | +0.06 | +0.25 | −0.24 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:10 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 15:05 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:41 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 13:41 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 19:11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 9:55 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 10:38 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 13:34 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 18:51 | −0.11 | +0.17 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:33 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 14:36 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 21:31 | −0.37 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 16:46 | −0.41 | +0.13 | −0.56 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 60:00 | +0.23 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:16 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.10 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:31 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 26:32 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Colin White C | 16:30 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 12:20 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ben Harpur D | 19:28 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 18:59 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:26 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:57 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Jaros D | 17:56 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Wolanin D | 16:17 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 17:21 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 17:10 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 16:02 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 11:30 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 11:33 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chlapik C | 7:55 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 10:47 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 59:30 | +0.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.