WSH beat NYR 6–5 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Evgeny Kuznetsov scored at 4:20 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Henrik Lundqvist allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:21 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Jimmy Vesey, Mika Zibanejad | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 18:42 | WSH | Nicklas Backstrom from John Carlson, T.J. Oshie | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 19:03 | WSH | Michal Kempny from Brett Connolly, Andre Burakovsky | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:09 | WSH | Tom WilsonPP from Jakub Vrana, Lars Eller | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 18:18 | NYR | Brady Skjei from Connor Brickley, Lias Andersson | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 0:21 | NYR | Jimmy Vesey unassisted | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 2:25 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Travis Boyd, Brooks Orpik | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 3:01 | WSH | Nicklas Backstrom unassisted | 3–5 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 6:01 | NYR | Vladislav NamestnikovPP from Neal Pionk, Tony DeAngelo | 4–5 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 19:29 | NYR | Brady SkjeiPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, Mika Zibanejad | 5–5 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 4:20 | WSH | Evgeny Kuznetsov from Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei D | 21:17 | 2 | +1.14 | −0.30 | +1.65 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 20:21 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 21:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.18 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chris Kreider L | 21:29 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.37 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Boo Nieves C | 9:28 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brickley L | 7:36 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 6:36 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 15:50 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 20:03 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 15:44 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 24:11 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Claesson D | 16:30 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:31 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 19:00 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 10:00 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lias Andersson C | 13:15 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 23:47 | 2 | −0.51 | −0.48 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 19:22 | −0.62 | −0.12 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 63:36 | −2.45 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 22:33 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.11 | +1.42 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Michal Kempny D | 17:42 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.12 | +0.87 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 19:12 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.31 | +0.71 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 10:44 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.14 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:35 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.06 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:56 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.29 | −0.30 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 14:16 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:05 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Niskanen D | 24:35 | +0.08 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 14:22 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 28:36 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.31 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 10:53 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 7:23 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lars Eller C | 16:02 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Brooks Orpik D | 12:32 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 13:22 | −0.30 | +0.17 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 11:29 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.01 | −0.59 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 20:36 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.12 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pheonix Copley G | 64:20 | −2.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.