TOR beat MTL 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 3.2, TOR 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Zach Hyman scored at 18:10 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 50% to 94%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:07 | MTL | Andrew Shaw from Brett Kulak, Max Domi | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:44 | MTL | Tomas Tatar from Jeff Petry | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 13:52 | MTL | Jeff PetryPP from Andrew Shaw, Paul Byron | 3–0 | 79% → 91% |
| P2 2:13 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Morgan Rielly, John Tavares | 3–1 | 7% → 19% |
| P2 18:06 | TOR | Tyler EnnisPP from Patrick Marleau, William Nylander | 3–2 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 6:58 | TOR | William Nylander from Patrick Marleau, Jake Muzzin | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 18:10 | TOR | Zach Hyman from Mitch Marner | 3–4 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 19:02 | TOR | Andreas JohnssonEN from Kasperi Kapanen, Auston Matthews | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:37 | TOR | Zach HymanEN from Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Petry D | 23:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.02 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Tatar L | 18:37 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.11 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Shaw R | 16:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Peca C | 9:54 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 17:44 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:08 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 15:18 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 20:12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:36 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.39 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:33 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 22:52 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:24 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 13:15 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 15:07 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.21 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:22 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 12:44 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:55 | −0.39 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 20:35 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 58:52 | −0.78 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman L | 19:53 | 2 | +1.04 | +0.13 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| William Nylander R | 15:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.09 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Tyler Ennis R | 9:59 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.02 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 16:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.06 | +0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Ron Hainsey D | 21:17 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 18:39 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 20:35 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Par Lindholm C | 8:01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 13:34 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:45 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederik Gauthier C | 7:48 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 15:14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 19:32 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 17:16 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.18 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:24 | 2 | −0.23 | +0.24 | −0.54 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 12:50 | −0.30 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 18:43 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 15:18 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.11 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.