BOS beat SJS 6–5 in overtime. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Charlie McAvoy scored at 3:59 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Martin Jones allowed 3.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:49 | BOS | Torey KrugPP from David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P1 16:26 | BOS | Zdeno Chara from Sean Kuraly | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 18:24 | BOS | Karson Kuhlman from Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci | 3–0 | 80% → 92% |
| P1 19:57 | SJS | Joe Thornton from Joe Pavelski | 3–1 | 7% → 20% |
| P2 2:24 | SJS | Joe PavelskiPP from Brent Burns, Logan Couture | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 6:30 | BOS | Jake DeBruskPP from Danton Heinen, David Backes | 4–2 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 16:03 | SJS | Joe Thornton from Marcus Sorensen, Radim Simek | 4–3 | 13% → 29% |
| P2 19:35 | SJS | Logan CouturePP unassisted | 4–4 | 27% → 51% |
| P3 13:32 | SJS | Joe Thornton from Joe Pavelski, Justin Braun | 4–5 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 18:11 | BOS | Chris Wagner from Brandon Carlo, Noel Acciari | 5–5 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:59 | BOS | Charlie McAvoy from David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeno Chara D | 22:08 | 1 | +1.29 | +0.16 | +0.92 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Karson Kuhlman C | 11:49 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.05 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:58 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.11 | +0.81 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 13:48 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.16 | +0.48 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.56 | −0.24 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Torey Krug D | 19:58 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.37 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 16:43 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 9:32 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 10:26 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 10:01 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 17:10 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 16:47 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 15:52 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:31 | −0.15 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 23:44 | −0.19 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 20:24 | 3 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kevan Miller D | 16:14 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 20:09 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 63:59 | −1.73 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Thornton C | 14:48 | 3 | +2.21 | +0.12 | +2.29 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 21:26 | 1 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.16 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 20:38 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 12:48 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 20:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:33 | +0.04 | +0.21 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 27:18 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.21 | −0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Radil C | 8:46 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 11:50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 14:59 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 11:35 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 11:17 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Braun D | 18:00 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 19:18 | −0.11 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:42 | −0.22 | +0.35 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:21 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:00 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 63:59 | −3.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.