COL beat VGK 3–0. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 3.3, COL 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tyson Jost scored at 6:36 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Semyon Varlamov saved 3.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:36 | COL | Tyson Jost unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 5:47 | COL | Andrew Agozzino from Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P3 6:53 | COL | Matt Calvert from Matt Nieto, Andrew Agozzino | 0–3 | 95% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:53 | +0.16 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 14:41 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:09 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Pirri C | 16:40 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 21:17 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:36 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:43 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 15:30 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 12:34 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 11:52 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 13:41 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 11:47 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:58 | −0.25 | +0.15 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 14:25 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 15:56 | −0.46 | +0.10 | −0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:37 | −0.60 | −0.03 | −0.66 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:27 | −0.78 | +0.01 | −0.77 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Subban G | 59:47 | +0.48 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Calvert L | 17:40 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Agozzino L | 6:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Tyson Jost C | 14:30 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 19:59 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 15:54 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:33 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.36 | −0.04 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 4:00 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sven Andrighetto R | 18:09 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 14:18 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 21:51 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:08 | −0.21 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 10:57 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 20:22 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:38 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 17:05 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.08 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Soderberg C | 19:24 | −0.57 | −0.07 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 15:54 | 1 | −0.60 | +0.08 | −0.72 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 59:36 | +3.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.