NYI beat CBJ 3–0. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.3, CBJ 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Casey Cizikas scored at 7:06 of the first, moving NYI’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Thomas Greiss saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:06 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Cal Clutterbuck, Thomas Greiss | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:50 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Devon Toews, Josh Bailey | 2–0 | 68% → 82% |
| P2 19:19 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Tom Kuhnhackl, Mathew Barzal | 3–0 | 89% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:26 | 2 | +1.70 | −0.02 | +1.53 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 15:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:14 | +0.22 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:42 | +0.09 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 13:26 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 19:15 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:30 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 11:13 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:13 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 18:01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 14:36 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valtteri Filppula C | 13:01 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 15:04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 12:07 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 21:58 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:18 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 18:00 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 60:00 | +2.28 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:38 | +0.27 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 21:24 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:04 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 9:47 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Markus Hannikainen L | 10:23 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 15:21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:23 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Markus Nutivaara D | 15:15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 24:16 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Sedlak C | 8:34 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 17:56 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 17:19 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.10 | ||
| David Savard D | 19:36 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 22:30 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 14:09 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 10:40 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:49 | −0.27 | +0.05 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 17:56 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.