STL beat NSH 5–4 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Vladimir Tarasenko scored at 0:16 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Juuse Saros allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:56 |  STL | Alex PietrangeloPP from Robert Thomas, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–0 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 4:41 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Jay Bouwmeester, Colton Parayko | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 5:06 | NSH | Viktor Arvidsson from Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 5:51 | STL | Tyler Bozak from Jaden Schwartz, Alexander Steen | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P3 2:48 | NSH | Roman Josi from Kevin Fiala, Ryan Ellis | 3–2 | 9% → 26% |
| P3 6:10 | NSH | Viktor Arvidsson from Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 7:06 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Ryan O'Reilly, Jay Bouwmeester | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 12:53 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan Johansen | 4–4 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 0:16 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko unassisted | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:20 | 3 | +2.15 | +0.11 | +2.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 16:00 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 21:07 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.24 | +0.74 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 27:15 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.27 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 10:36 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 24:40 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:00 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 9:00 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:59 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 15:59 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:52 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 15:50 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 12:23 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:52 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 15:16 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 5:59 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 19:38 | −0.52 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:16 | −0.37 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 21:00 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.23 | +1.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 22:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.03 | +0.64 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 21:08 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.33 | +0.14 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dan Hamhuis D | 14:49 | +0.25 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 18:37 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 25:46 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yannick Weber D | 10:33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 15:50 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:19 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 8:56 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 12:30 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 14:52 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 21:02 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.20 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Cody McLeod L | 2:12 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 18:30 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:15 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 11:42 | −0.30 | +0.15 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 22:56 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:16 | −2.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.