CBJ beat VGK 4–3. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cam Atkinson scored on the power play at 17:21 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 51% to 91%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:04 | CBJ | Josh Anderson from Seth Jones, Boone Jenner | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:36 | VGK | Nate Schmidt from Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 17:49 | VGK | Jon MerrillSH from William Karlsson, Reilly Smith | 1–2 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 15:31 | CBJ | Artemi Panarin from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Scott Harrington | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 9:21 | VGK | Cody Eakin from Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Colin Miller | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 14:48 | CBJ | Cam Atkinson from Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 17:21 | CBJ | Cam AtkinsonPP from Zach Werenski, Artemi Panarin | 4–3 | 51% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Atkinson R | 19:58 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.40 | +1.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:28 | 1 | 2 | +1.28 | +0.39 | +0.61 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:01 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 13:13 | +0.23 | +0.34 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 21:11 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 20:42 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | |
| Riley Nash C | 12:13 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 12:24 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Murray D | 23:42 | +0.04 | +0.25 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 24:43 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 19:38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Hannikainen L | 11:28 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 9:52 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 24:06 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Sedlak C | 10:13 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 7:32 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 23:28 | −0.23 | +0.22 | −0.46 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 7:19 | −0.41 | −0.14 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 59:49 | −0.18 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Merrill D | 19:01 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.07 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 14:08 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:47 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.16 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 10:36 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 21:41 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 20:20 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 21:20 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 20:25 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colin Miller D | 19:33 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valentin Zykov L | 7:52 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:59 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 7:16 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:53 | −0.34 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 18:06 | −0.43 | −0.29 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:19 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 19:04 | −0.51 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:33 | −0.64 | −0.02 | −0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 17:59 | −0.66 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 57:51 | −0.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.