CAR beat BUF 6–5 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 3.6, BUF 3.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Teuvo Teravainen scored at 3:25 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Linus Ullmark allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:04 | CAR | Justin Faulk from Sebastian Aho, Justin Williams | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:37 | CAR | Teuvo Teravainen from Jordan Martinook, Andrei Svechnikov | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 8:15 | BUF | Evan Rodrigues from Conor Sheary, Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 15:14 | BUF | Jason Pominville from Zach Bogosian | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 1:54 | CAR | Greg McKegg from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Calvin de Haan | 3–2 | 49% → 74% |
| P3 5:48 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Rasmus Ristolainen, Lawrence Pilut | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 11:03 | CAR | Brock McGinn from Jordan Martinook, Andrei Svechnikov | 4–3 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 14:58 | CAR | Nino NiederreiterPP from Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho | 5–3 | 88% → 98% |
| P3 15:41 | BUF | Marco Scandella from Sam Reinhart, Casey Mittelstadt | 5–4 | 1% → 12% |
| P3 19:04 | BUF | Jeff SkinnerPP from Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel | 5–5 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:25 | CAR | Teuvo Teravainen unassisted | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:44 | 2 | 1 | +1.55 | +0.13 | +1.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Faulk D | 24:23 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.16 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Greg McKegg C | 8:42 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.15 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock McGinn L | 15:16 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.08 | +0.72 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 14:45 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 16:10 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Williams R | 20:54 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Micheal Ferland L | 13:28 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:29 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.11 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 23:10 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 14:04 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 10:36 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 21:41 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.22 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Saku Maenalanen R | 7:34 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 15:00 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:20 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:03 | −0.36 | −0.26 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:56 | 2 | −0.89 | −0.35 | −0.45 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis McElhinney G | 63:25 | −1.17 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 21:24 | 2 | +1.05 | −0.05 | +1.24 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.07 | |
| Jason Pominville R | 16:51 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.19 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 13:10 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.16 | +0.49 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 18:41 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.13 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:11 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.21 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| C.J. Smith L | 10:01 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 20:34 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawrence Pilut D | 17:06 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:47 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 12:46 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 14:43 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 23:42 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.31 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 20:48 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:11 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 25:27 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 14:11 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.14 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 11:15 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 17:00 | −0.44 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 62:39 | −2.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.