SJS beat WPG 3–2 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Joe Pavelski scored short-handed at 2:49 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 46% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:08 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Josh Morrissey, Jacob Trouba | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:54 | SJS | Logan CouturePP from Joe Pavelski, Kevin Labanc | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 0:52 | WPG | Mathieu Perreault from Tyler Myers, Brandon Tanev | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 2:35 | SJS | Marcus Sorensen from Kevin Labanc, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| OT 2:49 | SJS | Joe PavelskiSH from Brent Burns | 3–2 | 46% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Pavelski C | 20:48 | 1 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.41 | +0.50 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Logan Couture C | 22:53 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.35 | +0.23 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 13:14 | 2 | +0.43 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Sorensen L | 11:10 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.08 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brent Burns D | 27:03 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 14:24 | +0.21 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 27:27 | +0.11 | +0.34 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:12 | +0.09 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 21:10 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.26 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Heed D | 11:53 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:22 | −0.05 | +0.25 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:59 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 6:59 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 14:46 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 10:59 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:20 | −0.14 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 11:42 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 16:46 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 62:32 | +0.26 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Perreault C | 14:11 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.35 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 14:45 | +0.23 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.06 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 3:45 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 13:24 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 9:57 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:30 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 9:54 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 25:30 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Morrow D | 15:38 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 18:37 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 11:42 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 20:34 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 21:55 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.45 | +0.32 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Little C | 14:49 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 25:08 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 19:18 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 27:52 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 23:34 | −0.69 | −0.48 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 62:49 | −0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.