MTL beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.4, MTL 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jonathan Drouin scored at 0:58 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Mikko Koskinen allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:23 | MTL | Shea WeberPP from Jonathan Drouin | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 9:44 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Milan Lucic, Darnell Nurse | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 1:09 | MTL | Max Domi from Jeff Petry, Paul Byron | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:05 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:55 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Alex Chiasson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P3 13:35 | MTL | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Max Domi, Tomas Tatar | 3–3 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 0:58 | MTL | Jonathan Drouin from Victor Mete, Phillip Danault | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:26 | 2 | +0.52 | −0.02 | +0.64 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 24:05 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.03 | +0.31 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.05 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 26:01 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.17 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 13:38 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:06 | 2 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kyle Brodziak C | 13:04 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 13:43 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 10:06 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 6:00 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 11:16 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Manning D | 12:18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 12:50 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 13:52 | −0.07 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Rattie R | 12:49 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Gravel D | 21:42 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 19:36 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.11 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 21:16 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 21:17 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 60:58 | −1.84 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Drouin L | 17:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.28 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.02 |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:08 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.05 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Victor Mete D | 15:32 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 17:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.13 | +0.25 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.03 |
| Paul Byron L | 8:53 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:48 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.23 | −0.09 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Shea Weber D | 26:36 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.39 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 16:55 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 19:21 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 21:08 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:54 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 21:18 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 6:22 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Peca C | 7:23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charles Hudon L | 12:29 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:22 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:29 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 17:50 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 60:55 | −0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.