TOR beat PIT 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 2.8, TOR 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Zach Hyman scored at 16:06 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 76%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:01 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Kris Letang | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 13:20 | PIT | Teddy Blueger from Garrett Wilson, Olli Maatta | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 17:25 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Travis Dermott, Jake Gardiner | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 9:36 | TOR | Travis Dermott from Jake Gardiner, Patrick Marleau | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 16:06 | TOR | Zach Hyman from Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Blueger C | 9:08 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:43 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Garrett Wilson L | 8:37 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 17:42 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:24 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Juuso Riikola D | 17:53 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 13:41 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 14:13 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 18:22 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 11:21 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 18:46 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 13:06 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:26 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:38 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 18:38 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 15:40 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 16:14 | −0.34 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 16:56 | −0.58 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 58:32 | −0.55 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Dermott D | 15:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.12 | +0.43 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:09 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.13 | +0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.03 | +0.32 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:58 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Gardiner D | 16:57 | 2 | +0.18 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 19:52 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 8:46 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 15:04 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 10:00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:16 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Par Lindholm C | 8:46 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 19:04 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 19:52 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 20:47 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 21:43 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 14:43 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 12:56 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Garret Sparks G | 59:56 | +0.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.