NJD beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nico Hischier scored at 1:56 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:22 | MTL | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Artturi Lehkonen, Jordie Benn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 19:16 | NJD | Will ButcherPP from Kyle Palmieri, Marcus Johansson | 1–1 | 33% → 48% |
| P2 16:33 | MTL | Phillip Danault from Jeff Petry, Max Domi | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 11:26 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Kevin Rooney | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 1:56 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Mirco Mueller | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier C | 20:28 | 2 | +1.87 | +0.28 | +1.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Will Butcher D | 20:51 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.19 | +0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mirco Mueller D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Seney L | 7:40 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 12:25 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Egor Yakovlev D | 14:04 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 15:40 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 20:29 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 19:19 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 13:36 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 13:28 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Santini D | 16:56 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:04 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 24:20 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 19:58 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis Gabriel R | 7:50 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 17:36 | −0.27 | +0.21 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:01 | −0.44 | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 61:44 | +0.54 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Danault C | 16:24 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.09 | +0.77 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:38 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.06 | +0.68 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Max Domi C | 18:14 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:20 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Hudon L | 13:08 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 19:03 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 21:05 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Mete D | 20:02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 16:15 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Peca C | 10:04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 15:20 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 19:01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 23:07 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:51 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 19:13 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 16:56 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:58 | −0.52 | +0.07 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Niemi G | 61:56 | −0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.