Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
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2019-01-31 · TD Garden

3 – 2Final/OT

PHI beat BOS 3–2 in overtime. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Travis Sanheim scored on the power play at 2:56 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 50% to 100%.

Shots on goal
41 – 25
Expected goals
2.9 – 2.1
xG share
PHI 59%
Home-ice start
BOS 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

PHI goalBOS goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

PHIBOS

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

BOS
2 G, 0 A · 17:27 TOI
On-ice +0.13 · Finishing +0.69 · Penalties +0.18
+0.98
PHI
Jakub Voracek
0 G, 2 A · 21:09 TOI
On-ice +0.13 · Finishing −0.06 · Playmaking +0.41
+0.47
PHI
1 G, 1 A · 23:53 TOI
On-ice +0.16 · Finishing +0.36
+0.47

Rough nights

BOS
David Krejci
0 G, 0 A · 19:57 TOI
On-ice −0.23 · Finishing −0.11 · Playmaking −0.10 · Faceoffs −0.07
−0.48
BOS
Peter Cehlarik
0 G, 0 A · 13:59 TOI
On-ice −0.25 · Finishing −0.19
−0.48
BOS
0 G, 0 A · 12:47 TOI
On-ice −0.05 · Penalties −0.18
−0.30

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalPHI–BOSWin prob.
P1 3:05 BOSDavid PastrnakPP
from Torey Krug, Brad Marchand
0–154% → 69%
P1 19:16 PHIClaude Giroux
from Jakub Voracek
1–129% → 47%
P2 5:11 BOSDavid Pastrnak
from Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara
1–253% → 73%
P3 10:36 PHIOskar LindblomPP
from Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim
2–217% → 48%
OT 2:56 PHITravis SanheimPP
from Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny
3–250% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Jakub Voracek R21:092+0.47+0.13−0.06+0.41−0.01+0.00+0.00
Travis Sanheim D23:5311+0.47+0.16+0.36−0.04−0.01+0.00+0.00
Claude Giroux R21:061+0.31+0.15+0.30−0.01−0.00−0.18+0.05
Oskar Lindblom L16:081+0.27−0.07+0.38−0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00
Travis Konecny R14:461+0.16+0.08−0.14+0.05−0.01+0.18+0.00
Sean Couturier C23:221+0.12−0.13−0.27+0.25−0.00+0.18+0.09
Radko Gudas D20:16+0.10+0.08−0.02+0.04+0.01+0.00+0.00
Wayne Simmonds R17:28+0.04+0.28−0.16−0.11+0.02+0.00+0.00
Christian Folin D11:30−0.00+0.04+0.00−0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00
Michael Raffl L7:14−0.03−0.01−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Phil Varone C9:09−0.03−0.00−0.00−0.03+0.00+0.00+0.00
Robert Hagg D17:39−0.04−0.01+0.00−0.03−0.00+0.00+0.00
Nolan Patrick C13:49−0.05+0.21−0.16−0.12+0.02+0.00+0.01
Mikhail Vorobyev C9:19−0.06−0.02−0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00−0.02
Andrew MacDonald D17:28−0.07−0.08+0.00+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Ivan Provorov D30:20−0.09+0.19−0.07−0.21−0.01+0.00+0.00
Scott Laughton C18:16−0.11+0.24−0.28−0.09+0.01+0.00+0.01
James van Riemsdyk L16:37−0.19+0.00−0.15−0.06−0.00+0.00+0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Carter Hart G62:56+0.09

BOS

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
David Pastrnak R17:272+0.98+0.13+0.69−0.01−0.01+0.18+0.00
Patrice Bergeron C19:211+0.04−0.02−0.08+0.19+0.04+0.00−0.08
Charlie McAvoy D22:13+0.04+0.09−0.03−0.04+0.01+0.00+0.00
Trent Frederic C9:57+0.03+0.01−0.00−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.03
David Backes R9:44+0.01+0.02−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01
Zdeno Chara D22:151+0.01+0.10−0.18+0.08+0.01+0.00+0.00
Danton Heinen L12:32+0.00+0.05−0.00−0.06+0.00+0.00+0.00
Brad Marchand L19:451−0.01+0.08−0.00+0.08+0.00−0.18+0.00
Torey Krug D20:231−0.05−0.16−0.04+0.15+0.00+0.00+0.00
Chris Wagner R13:17−0.10−0.05−0.00−0.04+0.01+0.00−0.02
Kevan Miller D15:03−0.12−0.12+0.00−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00
Joakim Nordstrom C14:13−0.15−0.06−0.07−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jake DeBrusk L19:50−0.22−0.17−0.01−0.05+0.02+0.00+0.00
John Moore D20:10−0.22−0.16−0.01−0.03−0.01+0.00+0.00
Brandon Carlo D24:05−0.25−0.27−0.01−0.01+0.03+0.00+0.00
Sean Kuraly C12:47−0.30−0.05−0.00−0.03−0.01−0.18−0.02
Peter Cehlarik L13:59−0.48−0.25−0.19−0.03−0.01+0.00+0.00
David Krejci C19:57−0.48−0.23−0.11−0.10+0.02+0.00−0.07
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Tuukka Rask G62:56+0.31

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.