CGY beat DET 6–4. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.2, CGY 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Sam Bennett scored on the power play at 16:06 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 90%. Jimmy Howard allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:01 | DET | Anthony ManthaPP from Niklas Kronwall, Gustav Nyquist | 1–0 | 52% → 66% |
| P2 7:58 | CGY | Sam BennettPP from James Neal, TJ Brodie | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 13:25 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Mike Green, Tyler Bertuzzi | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 14:58 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 4:16 | DET | Mike Green from Thomas Vanek, Frans Nielsen | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 7:34 | CGY | James NealPP from Rasmus Andersson, Sam Bennett | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 8:35 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Gustav Nyquist, Tyler Bertuzzi | 4–3 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 14:03 | CGY | Mark GiordanoSH from Derek Ryan | 4–4 | 14% → 50% |
| P3 16:06 | CGY | Sam BennettPP from Derek Ryan, TJ Brodie | 4–5 | 52% → 90% |
| P3 19:10 | CGY | TJ BrodieEN from Matthew Tkachuk, Mike Smith | 4–6 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:49 | 2 | +1.20 | −0.03 | +1.23 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:51 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.00 | +0.67 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Green D | 20:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.85 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Nick Jensen D | 21:36 | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 19:38 | +0.09 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:20 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Thomas Vanek L | 14:57 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 14:26 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Christoffer Ehn C | 8:15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 15:19 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 15:03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 11:09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 12:33 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 19:05 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Kronwall D | 21:32 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:19 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 15:20 | −0.82 | −0.01 | −0.78 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 58:58 | −1.46 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bennett C | 11:31 | 2 | 1 | +1.46 | +0.06 | +1.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Giordano D | 25:50 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.25 | +0.82 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 20:38 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.07 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 13:16 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.01 | |
| James Neal L | 13:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.05 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:05 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 14:05 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 25:08 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 14:19 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 21:04 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:57 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 19:59 | 1 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Kylington D | 11:22 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:56 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 7:54 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 14:07 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:37 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.11 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 14:05 | 1 | −0.84 | +0.11 | −0.80 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 59:27 | −1.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.