BOS beat STL 5–2. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Chris Wagner scored at 5:27 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Jake Allen allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:31 | BOS | Torey Krug from David Krejci, Peter Cehlarik | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:23 | STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Jordan Kyrou, David Perron | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 13:36 | STL | Carl Gunnarsson from Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 16:00 | BOS | David BackesPP from Zdeno Chara, David Krejci | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 5:27 | BOS | Chris Wagner from Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 13:12 | BOS | Brad Marchand from Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron | 2–4 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 19:08 | BOS | Sean KuralyEN from David Krejci, Chris Wagner | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 13:18 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 24:00 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 13:12 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 8:26 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:30 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 22:26 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 9:15 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 21:15 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 7:14 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 9:56 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:32 | −0.12 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 20:04 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 22:28 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:12 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 20:01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 22:30 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 23:59 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 21:13 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 57:32 | −1.77 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Backes R | 11:25 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.09 | +0.69 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 22:16 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.06 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 14:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.09 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Brad Marchand L | 21:08 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.08 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 25:47 | +0.15 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 19:24 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 20:13 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:28 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| John Moore D | 16:16 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson C | 10:24 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 10:38 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 13:09 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:00 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:03 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| David Krejci C | 16:49 | 3 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Peter Cehlarik L | 14:45 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.19 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 9:24 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 18:34 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 60:00 | +0.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.