BUF beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jack Eichel scored at 1:10 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%. David Rittich allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:59 | CGY | Johnny GaudreauPP from Elias Lindholm, Mark Giordano | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 9:45 |  BUF | Evan Rodrigues from Casey Mittelstadt | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 6:49 | CGY | Matthew TkachukPP from Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau | 1–2 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 7:34 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel | 2–2 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 10:56 | BUF | Jake McCabe unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 11:34 | CGY | Noah Hanifin from Sean Monahan, Rasmus Andersson | 3–3 | 18% → 52% |
| OT 1:10 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Rasmus Ristolainen | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 20:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.01 | +0.68 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.07 |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 14:51 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.04 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.13 | +0.93 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:56 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.16 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:21 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 13:36 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 15:00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 11:59 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Lawrence Pilut D | 18:00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 11:34 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:46 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:05 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:59 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 20:46 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 16:46 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 11:22 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 14:07 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 14:43 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 61:02 | −0.64 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:28 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.09 | +0.89 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:21 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.50 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 21:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.04 | +0.53 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Dalton Prout D | 16:14 | +0.32 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 10:05 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:25 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 12:39 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 7:40 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 9:38 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 11:58 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 27:09 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 19:19 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:42 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 16:24 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:29 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 14:53 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 20:44 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:34 | −0.53 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 61:10 | −2.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.