PIT beat ANA 7–4. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Phil Kessel scored at 10:21 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 80%. John Gibson allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:27 |  ANA | Nick Ritchie from Ondrej Kase, Adam Henrique | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:41 | ANA | Ryan Getzlaf from Andrew Cogliano | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 12:23 | ANA | Daniel Sprong from Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf | 0–3 | 84% → 91% |
| P2 0:59 |  PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Phil Kessel, Kris Letang | 1–3 | 7% → 14% |
| P2 4:54 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Brian Dumoulin | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 11:24 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:39 | ANA | Jakob SilfverbergSH from Adam Henrique | 3–4 | 52% → 74% |
| P3 9:33 | PIT | Tanner Pearson from Evgeni Malkin, Dominik Simon | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 10:21 | PIT | Phil Kessel unassisted | 5–4 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 16:35 | PIT | Tanner Pearson from Evgeni Malkin, Marcus Pettersson | 6–4 | 90% → 99% |
| P3 19:02 | PIT | Jake GuentzelEN from Sidney Crosby | 7–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Pearson L | 14:37 | 2 | +1.53 | −0.02 | +1.58 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:23 | 3 | +1.33 | +0.29 | +1.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 15:03 | 1 | 3 | +0.79 | +0.08 | +0.51 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:11 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.47 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 26:09 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.53 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 15:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.45 | +0.29 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:05 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matt Cullen C | 13:11 | +0.29 | +0.38 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 9:02 | +0.10 | +0.30 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 18:47 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 18:05 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 12:46 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 14:23 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 14:19 | −0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Garrett Wilson L | 9:30 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 12:02 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 17:32 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:39 | −0.63 | +0.17 | −0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:00 | −1.39 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Ritchie L | 16:34 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.15 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 14:47 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.49 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 17:28 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.11 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 20:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.22 | +0.40 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Adam Henrique C | 17:33 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brian Gibbons C | 9:19 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 15:27 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 9:58 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:18 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:41 | −0.19 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Dotchin D | 12:57 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 16:05 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Rowney C | 11:44 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:36 | −0.27 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:47 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 17:29 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:20 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Kesler C | 16:29 | −0.51 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:43 | −1.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.