CBJ beat NSH 4–3 in overtime. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Artemi Panarin scored on the power play at 1:22 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Pekka Rinne allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:26 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Josh Anderson, Zach Werenski | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 4:31 | NSH | Nick Bonino from Mattias Ekholm, Kevin Fiala | 1–1 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 13:32 | CBJ | Artemi PanarinPP from Zach Werenski, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 1–2 | 53% → 87% |
| P3 13:43 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Nick Foligno | 1–3 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 15:07 | NSH | Viktor Arvidsson from Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen | 2–3 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 15:45 | NSH | Mattias Ekholm from Colton Sissons, Ryan Hartman | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 1:22 | CBJ | Artemi PanarinPP from Seth Jones, Cam Atkinson | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bonino C | 15:28 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.09 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.06 | +0.65 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 19:47 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.61 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 12:10 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Irwin D | 10:08 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 24:49 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 21:38 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:09 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Roman Josi D | 25:12 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 10:55 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 10:17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 15:25 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 15:43 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:25 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 13:15 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 21:41 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.12 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:37 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.52 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 15:01 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.05 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 61:22 | −1.21 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:37 | 2 | +1.76 | −0.07 | +1.59 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 19:07 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.04 | +1.60 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| David Savard D | 18:34 | +0.28 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 21:05 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 24:40 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Sedlak C | 7:58 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 7:42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 6:05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:55 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 16:58 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 20:36 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:03 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 12:42 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 20:09 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 19:09 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 19:57 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 18:26 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.11 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 17:37 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.14 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 61:22 | +0.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.