OTT beat ANA 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 3.5, ANA 3.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Colin White scored at 1:34 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anders Nilsson saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:52 | ANA | Jakob Silfverberg from Brandon Montour, Andrew Cogliano | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 9:23 | OTT | Bobby Ryan from Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney | 1–1 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 1:34 | OTT | Colin White from Mark Stone | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Ryan R | 14:06 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.22 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin White C | 17:25 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.10 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Stone R | 21:31 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ben Harpur D | 19:07 | +0.14 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 7:38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 19:40 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 17:00 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Christian Jaros D | 17:49 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 16:27 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Maxime Lajoie D | 20:14 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 19:30 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 6:45 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 14:12 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:58 | −0.21 | +0.10 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 13:05 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 13:20 | −0.38 | +0.12 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 17:24 | −0.54 | +0.01 | −0.47 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 25:31 | −0.63 | −0.16 | −0.48 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Nilsson G | 61:34 | +2.25 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 17:29 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.14 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Larsson D | 10:33 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Dotchin D | 11:15 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:06 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 11:15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 11:18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 24:15 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 26:20 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:28 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 13:01 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:40 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 15:38 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Kase R | 16:36 | −0.40 | −0.13 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:47 | −0.41 | −0.16 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Kesler C | 20:29 | −0.47 | −0.04 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 14:46 | −0.49 | −0.07 | −0.40 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 19:52 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 61:34 | +1.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.