VAN beat OTT 4–3 in overtime. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 1:38 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:48 | VAN | Sven BaertschiPP from Alexander Edler, Bo Horvat | 1–0 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 12:27 | OTT | Matt DuchenePP from Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 15:26 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Brock Boeser, Alexander Edler | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 5:00 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Alexander Edler, Sven Baertschi | 3–1 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 10:51 | OTT | Christian Wolanin from Ryan Dzingel, Mikkel Boedker | 3–2 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 19:10 | OTT | Mark StonePP from Ryan Dzingel, Matt Duchene | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 1:38 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Chris Tanev, Brock Boeser | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 22:16 | 3 | +2.67 | −0.03 | +2.27 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.01 | |
| Sven Baertschi L | 14:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.09 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Troy Stecher D | 17:14 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 14:35 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 16:31 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 10:26 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 23:55 | 3 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 17:31 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 15:57 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 2:52 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 13:22 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:32 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 19:04 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 23:56 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jake Virtanen R | 15:45 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 17:18 | 2 | −0.41 | +0.16 | −0.75 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 18:47 | −0.41 | −0.14 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 15:56 | −0.73 | −0.05 | −0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 61:38 | +0.43 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Wolanin D | 12:13 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.22 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 24:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.06 | +0.35 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Matt Duchene C | 24:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Maxime Lajoie D | 21:55 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 14:24 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 15:31 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Stefan Elliott D | 8:45 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 17:40 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 28:56 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 9:14 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 17:02 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 16:07 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 13:33 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ben Harpur D | 13:07 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Rodewald R | 5:50 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 16:08 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:40 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 19:47 | 2 | −0.56 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 61:10 | +0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.