WPG beat EDM 4–3. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brendan Lemieux scored at 14:02 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 49% to 85%. Mikko Koskinen allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:50 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Connor McDavid, Alexander Petrovic | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 4:39 | WPG | Brandon Tanev from Jacob Trouba, Josh Morrissey | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:02 | WPG | Brendan Lemieux from Andrew Copp, Jack Roslovic | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 18:03 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 18:32 | WPG | Blake Wheeler unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 7:23 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Connor McDavid | 3–3 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 14:02 | WPG | Brendan Lemieux from Joe Morrow, Andrew Copp | 4–3 | 49% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Lemieux L | 7:49 | 2 | +1.63 | +0.17 | +1.46 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 19:38 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.21 | +0.67 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 15:55 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 12:29 | +0.22 | +0.26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Morrow D | 12:39 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 23:02 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 8:45 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:05 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:50 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 14:10 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 26:28 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:40 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 12:12 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.24 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Bryan Little C | 14:05 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 17:20 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 19:53 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 16:37 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:52 | −0.31 | +0.13 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 59:53 | −0.83 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:45 | 2 | +1.39 | −0.13 | +1.54 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.17 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Adam Larsson D | 20:56 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 15:53 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 22:09 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Manning D | 12:54 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joseph Gambardella C | 5:57 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 23:56 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Rattie R | 14:56 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 12:22 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 11:51 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 15:01 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 13:11 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 20:21 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Spooner C | 14:05 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 12:12 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 14:54 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:23 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.30 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 58:09 | −1.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.