NYR beat NSH 4–3. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jesper Fast scored at 7:35 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Pekka Rinne allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:42 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Hayes | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:43 | NSH | Nick BoninoPP from Mattias Ekholm, Kevin Fiala | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 3:51 | NYR | Jesper Fast from Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 4:44 | NSH | Kevin Fiala unassisted | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:35 | NSH | Nick BoninoPP from Craig Smith, Kevin Fiala | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 4:23 | NYR | Marc Staal from Jesper Fast, Mika Zibanejad | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 7:35 | NYR | Jesper Fast from Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider | 4–3 | 48% → 78% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Fast R | 16:17 | 2 | 1 | +1.46 | −0.09 | +1.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marc Staal D | 21:37 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.03 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 15:51 | 1 | 2 | +0.70 | +0.14 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Kevin Hayes R | 19:48 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam McQuaid D | 20:34 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 14:51 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 15:34 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 9:24 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:08 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:20 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 10:19 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:37 | 4 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brett Howden C | 12:28 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:53 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 12:39 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 18:03 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody McLeod L | 10:48 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:24 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 60:00 | −0.00 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bonino C | 17:42 | 2 | +1.32 | +0.16 | +1.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:01 | 1 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.16 | +0.42 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 23:13 | +0.14 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.54 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 17:17 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 25:53 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 13:19 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 8:14 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 6:24 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 11:00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Bitetto D | 12:16 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 20:43 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:18 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 11:18 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 26:39 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:44 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miikka Salomaki R | 13:10 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 14:57 | −0.48 | −0.02 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 22:14 | −0.54 | −0.22 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 57:31 | −2.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.